Project gambling duty bases with OBR Table 4.10

Chiusa
  • Qualcosa non va?
#2,738 0 commenti 0 reazioni 0 assegnatari Vedi su GitHub

I maintainer di solito rispondono entro 2 giorni

@MaxGhenis ci sta già lavorando.

Dal 31/10/2026.

  • #2761 di @MaxGhenis — aperta

Valutazione

Difficoltà
4/5
Tempo stimato
3-5 giorni
Idoneità per principianti
48/100
Tipo di issue
Funzionalità
Chiarezza
Specificata chiaramente
Stato di attività
Attiva
Stack tecnologico
python
Ambito
backend, data

Direzione di ricerca

Start with #2717's RECEIPTS_SERIES_SPECS and the gambling duty base inputs, then inspect the OBR October 2026 Table 4.10 series and check whether its Machine Games Duty line includes the higher-stake change from #2731. Add uprating indexes for all seven bases that exclude rate effects; pin an index in tests for a duty with a forecast rate change. Done when the aggregate-impact report shows gambling duty receipts changes by year.

Scritto dal modello di indicizzazione a partire dal testo della issue.

Descrizione

None of the seven gambling duty bases has an uprating index. A 2024-25 dataset therefore holds its cash takings flat in every later year. María raised this on #2731 (comment). For Machine Games Duty alone, the higher-stake change would miss about £114m (75.7% × £3.02bn × 5 points).

What to do

  • Project the takings bases for all seven duties, not just Machine Games Duty.
  • Grow the base, not the receipts. Receipts growth already carries rate changes the model applies itself: Remote Gaming Duty goes from 21% to 40% from April 2026, and remote betting from 15% to 25% from April 2027. If takings grew with receipts, the model would apply those rises twice.
  • Do the same for any Budget measure already in the October forecast. Before using Table 4.10's Machine Games Duty line, check whether it includes the higher-stake change (#2731).
  • The OBR's October 2026 receipts tables publish Table 4.10, "Betting and gaming duties forecast breakdown". #2717's RECEIPTS_SERIES_SPECS (SDLT and business rates today) is the natural place to import it.

Stack this on #2717 and aim for the same release.

Done when

  • Each gambling base input declares an uprating index from Table 4.10 that excludes the rate effects.
  • Tests pin the index for at least one duty with a rate change in the forecast window.
  • The aggregate-impact report gives the change in gambling duty receipts by year.
Lingua principale
Python
Stelle
53
Fork
34
Merge medio
3g 8h
PR unite (30g)
322

Preparare l'ambiente

Come iniziare

  1. Leggi tutta la issue e poi la guida ai contributi del progetto.
  2. Commenta sulla issue per dire che te ne occupi tu — evita che due persone facciano lo stesso lavoro.
  3. Fai un fork del repository e lavora su un branch.
  4. Apri una pull request che faccia riferimento al numero della issue.

Altre issue di PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

Tutte le issue di PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

Issue simili

Altre issue su Python

Ricevi le nuove issue nella tua casella

Un breve riepilogo di issue GitHub adatte ai principianti.