Project gambling duty bases with OBR Table 4.10

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@MaxGhenis ya está trabajando en esto.

Desde el 31/10/2026.

  • #2761 de @MaxGhenis — abierto

Evaluación

Dificultad
4/5
Tiempo estimado
3-5 días
Aptitud para principiantes
48/100
Tipo de issue
Nueva funcionalidad
Claridad
Bien especificado
Estado de actividad
Activo
Stack tecnológico
python
Área
backend, data

Línea de trabajo

Start with #2717's RECEIPTS_SERIES_SPECS and the gambling duty base inputs, then inspect the OBR October 2026 Table 4.10 series and check whether its Machine Games Duty line includes the higher-stake change from #2731. Add uprating indexes for all seven bases that exclude rate effects; pin an index in tests for a duty with a forecast rate change. Done when the aggregate-impact report shows gambling duty receipts changes by year.

Escrito por el modelo de indexación a partir del texto del issue.

Descripción

None of the seven gambling duty bases has an uprating index. A 2024-25 dataset therefore holds its cash takings flat in every later year. María raised this on #2731 (comment). For Machine Games Duty alone, the higher-stake change would miss about £114m (75.7% × £3.02bn × 5 points).

What to do

  • Project the takings bases for all seven duties, not just Machine Games Duty.
  • Grow the base, not the receipts. Receipts growth already carries rate changes the model applies itself: Remote Gaming Duty goes from 21% to 40% from April 2026, and remote betting from 15% to 25% from April 2027. If takings grew with receipts, the model would apply those rises twice.
  • Do the same for any Budget measure already in the October forecast. Before using Table 4.10's Machine Games Duty line, check whether it includes the higher-stake change (#2731).
  • The OBR's October 2026 receipts tables publish Table 4.10, "Betting and gaming duties forecast breakdown". #2717's RECEIPTS_SERIES_SPECS (SDLT and business rates today) is the natural place to import it.

Stack this on #2717 and aim for the same release.

Done when

  • Each gambling base input declares an uprating index from Table 4.10 that excludes the rate effects.
  • Tests pin the index for at least one duty with a rate change in the forecast window.
  • The aggregate-impact report gives the change in gambling duty receipts by year.
Lenguaje dominante
Python
Estrellas
53
Forks
34
Merge medio
4 d 51 min
PR fusionados (30 d)
361

Preparar el entorno

Primeros pasos

  1. Lee el issue completo y luego la guía de contribución del proyecto.
  2. Comenta en el issue que vas a ocuparte — evita que dos personas hagan lo mismo.
  3. Haz un fork del repositorio y trabaja en una rama.
  4. Abre un pull request que haga referencia al número del issue.

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