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Calibrated TC impact functions (Eberenz et al. 2021) were fit on winds with double-counting fixed in #833

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Assessment

Difficulty
2/5
Estimated time
1-3 hours
Newbie friendliness
72/100
Issue type
Documentation
Clarity
Mostly clear
Activity status
Active
Tech stack
python
Domain
backend

Research direction

Read ImpfSetTropCyclone.from_calibrated_regional_ImpfSet() and calibrated_regional_vhalf() and trace how they expose the Eberenz et al. 2021 values. Check the wind model history around #833 and the issue's cited damage comparison. Done means the calibration caveat is clearly documented in both functions, or a warning is added, so users understand the mismatch between calibrated curves and corrected winds.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Description

CLIMADA is such an important resource, thank you for maintaining it!

While working with tropical cyclone hazard rasters produced by older versions of CLIMADA, we found a mismatch between the current TC wind model and the calibrated impact functions CLIMADA ships.

  • Before 4.1.0, the Holland 2008/2010 wind models counted the storm's translational velocity twice (fixed in #833, Jan 2024).
  • ImpfSetTropCyclone.from_calibrated_regional_ImpfSet() and calibrated_regional_vhalf() return the v_half values from Eberenz et al. 2021 (https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021). Those were calibrated on CLIMADA v1.4.1, which still had the double count. The values are unchanged through 6.1.0, and #833 doesn't mention them.

So the current default workflow (≥4.1 H08 winds + calibrated regional impact functions) pairs corrected winds with curves fit to inflated winds, and underestimates damage:

  • With the 2020 NA2 v_half, post-fix winds give damage fractions 40–70% too low at 40–60 m/s.
  • The bias isn't a constant scale factor: the extra wind equals forward speed, so fast-moving storms are affected more than slow ones.

Might be worth adding a note to the docstrings of the calibration functions that raises the calibration issue, or adding a warning to them until they can be calibrated again.

PR #692 mentions issues reproducing NA1’s curve, possibly related!

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