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Calibrated TC impact functions (Eberenz et al. 2021) were fit on winds with double-counting fixed in #833

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调研方向

阅读 ImpfSetTropCyclone.from_calibrated_regional_ImpfSet() 和 calibrated_regional_vhalf(),追踪它们如何提供 Eberenz et al. 2021 的数值。查看 #833 前后风模型的历史,以及 issue 引用的损失比较。两处函数都清楚记录校准方面的注意事项,或添加警告,使用户理解校准曲线与修正后的风之间的不匹配,即视为完成。

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描述

CLIMADA is such an important resource, thank you for maintaining it!

While working with tropical cyclone hazard rasters produced by older versions of CLIMADA, we found a mismatch between the current TC wind model and the calibrated impact functions CLIMADA ships.

  • Before 4.1.0, the Holland 2008/2010 wind models counted the storm's translational velocity twice (fixed in #833, Jan 2024).
  • ImpfSetTropCyclone.from_calibrated_regional_ImpfSet() and calibrated_regional_vhalf() return the v_half values from Eberenz et al. 2021 (https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-393-2021). Those were calibrated on CLIMADA v1.4.1, which still had the double count. The values are unchanged through 6.1.0, and #833 doesn't mention them.

So the current default workflow (≥4.1 H08 winds + calibrated regional impact functions) pairs corrected winds with curves fit to inflated winds, and underestimates damage:

  • With the 2020 NA2 v_half, post-fix winds give damage fractions 40–70% too low at 40–60 m/s.
  • The bias isn't a constant scale factor: the extra wind equals forward speed, so fast-moving storms are affected more than slow ones.

Might be worth adding a note to the docstrings of the calibration functions that raises the calibration issue, or adding a warning to them until they can be calibrated again.

PR #692 mentions issues reproducing NA1’s curve, possibly related!

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