P6: Prediction & fleet (stretch)

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Read the p6-failure-prediction OpenSpec change and its dependency, issue #20; consult the linked roadmap for the dependency graph, migration, quality gates and risks, and references.md for cited work. The scope calls for labeling failures from pit notes and maintenance records in a serial-number-keyed maintenance_events table, then modeling time to failure or component degradation. Done means these prediction capabilities are implemented; cross-robot pooling is optional and depends on portable robot configuration.

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roadmap

Size: L · Depends on: IgniteRobotics/flashpoint#20 · OpenSpec: p6-failure-prediction

Scope

  • Label failures from pit notes and maintenance records to make a maintenance_events table keyed by serial number. Unit identity makes these labels reliable.
  • Model time to failure or degradation slopes per component (thermal rise rate, residual drift). Literature shows measurable current and speed shifts before faults (Jin et al., 2014).
  • Optionally pool data across robots or teams. That needs the robot config to be portable.

Moved from the rewrite roadmap on 2026-10-19. That doc keeps the dependency graph, migration, quality gates and risks. Status lives here. Author-year citations are in references.md. pitfall N refers to 03-pitfalls-and-performance.md.

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