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Proposal: forecast-based reorder points and shortage allocation ("Replenishment Planner")

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#5,728 3 comments 0 reactions 0 assignees View on GitHub

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@arnavt687 is already working on this.

Since Sep 22, 2026.

  • #5729 by @arnavt687 — open

Assessment

Difficulty
5/5
Estimated time
Over a week
Newbie friendliness
25/100
Issue type
Feature
Clarity
Needs clarification
Activity status
Active
Tech stack
rails, ruby
Domain
analytics, data, full-stack

Research direction

Start by reading the proposal, the linked docs/replenishment.md write-up, and the prototype under app/services/replenishment/. Review the proposed service objects, controller, views, sidebar link, and specs, then seek maintainer decisions on scope and the PR breakdown. Done would mean an agreed feature direction and an approved, testable implementation plan.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Description

Hi, I'm Arnav, a developer interested in Ruby for Good's mission. I've built a prototype feature on a fork and would love feedback on whether it's something Human Essentials would want, and how you'd like it broken into PRs.

Problem

Today banks set on_hand_minimum_quantity by hand and LowInventoryQuery flags items below it. That number doesn't update as demand changes, so slow items can have high minimums (cash and shelf space tied up) while fast movers have none (surprise stockouts). There's also no help deciding how to split an item across partners when requests exceed what's on hand.

What the prototype does

  1. Demand forecast per item: builds a monthly series from the last 24 complete months of distributions (or partner requests). It tries a few simple models (moving average, exponential smoothing, damped-trend Holt, seasonal naive) and picks the one with the lowest out-of-sample error on a rolling backtest.
  2. Reorder point + suggested order: a standard periodic-review inventory policy. Safety stock scales with forecast error, lead time and a chosen service level (e.g. 95%). Items are flagged "Order now / Reorder / OK", shown next to the bank's existing manual minimum for comparison.
  3. Shortage allocation: on an item page, if open requests exceed stock, it shows two suggested splits (proportional vs. max-min fair) with fill rates. It's advisory only and never changes requests or distributions.

It's read-only: no migrations, no changes to existing models or inventory events. New code lives in app/services/replenishment/, plus one controller, two views, a sidebar link, and specs.

planner

Proposed PR plan (small pieces)

  1. Forecasting / reorder / allocation service objects + unit specs (no UI)
  2. Replenishment page behind a Flipper flag + request specs
  3. Item detail page with the allocation suggestion

Questions for maintainers

  • Is this a direction you'd want in the app? Should it start behind a feature flag?
  • Is there a better place in the nav (e.g. under Inventory or Reports)?
  • Would any banks be willing to try it and give feedback?
Dominant language
Ruby
Stars
593
Forks
595
Avg merge
8d 8h
Merged PRs (30d)
25

Getting set up

Open in Codespaces

Starts the project's dev container in your browser, under your own GitHub account.

First steps

  1. Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
  2. Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

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