`real_hbai_household_net_income_ahc` deflates by CPI, not the after-housing-costs index

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Issue 类型
缺陷
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基本清楚
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活跃
技术栈
python, yaml
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backend, data

调研方向

Trace real_hbai_household_net_income_ahc and real_household_net_income_ahc to their definitions and inspect inflation_adjustment_ahc, yoy_growth.yaml, and create_economic_assumption_indices. Find a source for the after-housing-costs index history back to 1996, or evaluate the fallback described in #2876. Done means the AHC measures use the intended index for earlier years and the impact on real AHC income is reported.

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描述

real_hbai_household_net_income_ahc and real_household_net_income_ahc multiply after-housing-costs income by inflation_adjustment, which divides consumer_price_index on the base date by that index in the period. inflation_adjustment_ahc reads consumer_price_index_ahc, and nothing in the package reads inflation_adjustment_ahc.

For HBAI, DWP commissioned two variants of CPI from ONS (2014/15 quality and methodology report, page 61). It deflates incomes after housing costs with a series that excludes rents, maintenance repairs and water charges, and incomes before housing costs with an experimental series that includes mortgage interest payments, ground rent and dwelling insurance. Its FYE 2025 methodology report still describes adjusting for inflation with variants of CPI.

consumer_price_index_ahc follows the first series, and the economic assumptions hold no parameter for the second, so real_hbai_household_net_income also multiplies by plain CPI's adjustment.

yoy_growth.yaml holds growth for consumer_price_index_ahc from 2022, and create_economic_assumption_indices sets each index to 1.0 on its first date, so the model holds no after-housing-costs price movement before 2023. DWP's series runs back to 1996. A fix needs that history before real_hbai_household_net_income_ahc can read the index for earlier years, or a stated fallback like the one inflation_adjustment_ahc has in #2876.

Moving a variable to inflation_adjustment_ahc changes its values, so the fix should report the impact on real after-housing-costs income.

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