UK facts for four November events: young people and work, the PIP review, the January 2027 price cap and the Scottish Budget 2027-28

Start by reading the existing Stat-Xplore package dwp/attendance_allowance_entitled_country_award_age_gender_february_2023_march_2026 and the referenced Microcosm and event repository gap issues. The request spans multiple data sources, releases, semantics, and parity checks; identify a single source package to scope before implementation. Done means the requested published facts are packaged with their stated provenance and semantics, and the listed parity checks hold.

Summary

PolicyEngine is preparing four UK events, each with its own readiness repository:

• the final report of the independent review of young people and work, due in November (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review);
• the final report of the PIP review, due in November (PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026);
• Ofgem's January–March 2027 price cap, announced by 25 November (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027);
• the Scottish Budget 2027-28 on 3 December (PolicyEngine/uk-scottish-budget-2027-28).

Their gap issues need published facts that Chronicle doesn't hold yet. This issue lists them in one place, in order of need:

• Group A would feed Microcosm targets or diagnostics, if those pieces are taken up for the next national and local-area pair. That isn't decided yet.
• Group B gives comparators for the event days.
• Group C can wait until after the events.

All sources are open (OGL v3.0, or the publisher's open licence). Building targets, tolerances or gates from them is Microcosm's work (see "Out of scope").

Consumers: Microcosm UK targets and diagnostics (PolicyEngine/microcosm), and each event repository's comparators.

Already in Chronicle, so not requested

• dwp/benefit_expenditure_caseload_spring_2026: DWP Spring Forecast 2026 PIP and DLA caseloads to 2030-31 (the Disability_benefits sheet).
• dwp/pip_daily_living_foi_2025: FOI2025/24990, the PIP daily living caseload.
• scotgov-scottish-budget-social-security-assistance-2026: Scottish Budget Table 5.08, spending on Adult Disability Payment, Child Disability Payment, Pension Age Disability Payment, Carer Support Payment, Best Start and the winter heating payments.
• hmrc-property-rental-income-2026: PRIS, with the Scotland rows.
• scotgov-band-d-equivalents-2025 and scotgov-band-d-council-tax-rates-2026-27: CTAXBASE and CTAS.
• ons/mye_2024_uk and ons/mye_2025_uk: population by single year of age.
• ofgem-energy-price-cap-levels-2024-2026 and the desnz/qep_*_2026 packages.

Group A: for Microcosm, if taken up for the next pair

1. ONS: young people not in education, employment or training (NEET), UK

• Source: the ONS bulletin series "Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET), UK" and its dataset: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/bulletins/youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneet.
  • It is quarterly, and labelled official statistics in development.
  • The May 2026 edition covers January to March 2026. The next edition falls in late November.
• Requested: for the UK, levels and rates, each published quarter from April–June 2024 to the latest:
  • people NEET and the population, at ages 16–17, 18–24 and 16–24, by sex;
  • NEET people split into unemployed and economically inactive.
• Semantics to carry:
  • the Labour Force Survey definition: anyone in any education or training is not NEET, part-time study included;
  • the "in development" label, and any LFS reweighting notes;
  • provenance class survey_aggregate.
• Parity checks:
  • 16–17 plus 18–24 equals 16–24;
  • unemployed plus inactive equals NEET.
• Use: a national NEET target or diagnostic in Microcosm (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#7).
  • The FRS records only full-time education and government schemes, so Microcosm's measure runs above ONS. The tolerance is Microcosm's call.

2. ONS: LFS table A06, educational and labour market status, ages 16 to 24

• Source: A06 SA, https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/educationalstatusandlabourmarketstatusforpeopleagedfrom16to24seasonallyadjusteda06sa, and A06 NSA, its not seasonally adjusted counterpart.

  • Monthly, on rolling three-month periods. The latest edition is 20 October 2026; the next is 17 November 2026.

• Requested: people aged 16–17 and 18–24, by sex, for the UK:

  • in and not in full-time education;
  • in each case, employed, unemployed and economically inactive.

  Use A06 NSA for the periods covering April 2024 to March 2025, and A06 SA for the latest.

• Semantics to carry: rolling three-month periods; full-time education as the LFS defines it; provenance class survey_aggregate.

• Parity checks:

  • in and not in full-time education add to the total;
  • employed, unemployed and inactive add to the total.

• Use: young people's work and study status against Microcosm's current_education and employment, nationally (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#7).

3. DWP Stat-Xplore: people on Universal Credit, by age and conditionality regime

• Source: the "People on Universal Credit" dataset on Stat-Xplore (https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk). The fields are described in https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/universal-credit-official-statistics-stat-xplore-user-guide/universal-credit-official-statistics-stat-xplore-user-guide.
• Requested: for Great Britain and each country, each month from April 2024 to the latest:
  • people on UC by single year of age from 16 to 24, if offered, or else Stat-Xplore's age bands;
  • the same by conditionality regime (all six) for each age;
  • the same for ages 25 and over in Stat-Xplore's bands.
• Semantics to carry:
  • these count people, not households;
  • the regime is assigned to each person;
  • "No work requirements" includes claimants with limited capability for work and work-related activity, carers, parents of a child under 1 and others;
  • DWP's rounding and suppression;
  • provenance class admin_aggregate.
• Parity checks:
  • the regimes add to each age's total;
  • the ages add to the all-ages total.
• Parser: the existing statxplore_table_json_rows.
• Use: young UC claimants by regime as a comparator, or a 16–24 total as a Microcosm target (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#3 and PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#7).

4. Employees and pay by age: PAYE RTI, and ASHE Table 6

Microcosm first diagnoses whether the under-21 employee base is short in headcount or in pay (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1374). Either source may then be enough, and both are cheap to package.

4a. PAYE Real Time Information, UK (ONS and HMRC, monthly)

• Source: the datasets of the bulletin series at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk.
• Requested: payrolled employees and median monthly pay by age band (single years at 16 to 24, if published), for the UK. Monthly, non-seasonally adjusted, April 2024 to the latest.
• Semantics to carry:
  • age at the time of payment;
  • each employee counted once, whatever their number of jobs;
  • self-employment excluded;
  • flash estimates revised in later releases;
  • provenance class admin_aggregate.

4b. ASHE Table 6, earnings and hours by age group

• Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/agegroupashetable6.
• Editions: 2024 revised and 2025 revised. 2026 provisional (22 October 2026) is optional.
• Requested: UK rows by age group, for all, full-time and part-time employees, and all persons, males and females:
  • gross weekly and gross annual pay, median and mean, plus the deciles the sheets print;
  • the number of jobs.
• Semantics to carry: these are employee jobs, not people, at the April pay period; the CV quality markers and suppression marks as published; provenance class survey_aggregate.
• Note: Chronicle's existing ASHE packages by age are pension contribution and membership tables, not these.

Use, for both: the base behind the employer NICs zero rate for employees under 21 (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#6).

5. DWP Pathways to Work evidence pack, chapter 2: PIP points

• Source: "Pathways to Work: Evidence pack: Chapter 2 reforming the structure" (DWP, March 2025), and its Excel tables: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/pathways-to-work-reforming-benefits-and-support-to-get-britain-working-green-paper/pathways-to-work-evidence-pack-chapter-2-reforming-the-structure.
• Requested: the data behind these numbered items of the chapter, which shows them as charts, with the values in its Excel tables:
  • items 9 and 10: daily living and mobility point scores by age;
  • items 19, 20 and 21: the maximum points scored on any daily living activity, which give the share scoring 4 or more in one activity, overall, by daily living award and by age;
  • item 27: point scores by daily living activity. Table 28 in the workbook breaks these down by condition;
  • if convenient, items 11, 12 and 22: points by primary health condition.
• Not requested: the workbook's Tables 25 and 26, by local authority and constituency.
• Semantics to carry:
  • working-age claimants under normal rules, on the January 2025 caseload, in England, Wales and abroad;
  • the percentages as published;
  • DWP's description of the source.
• Parity checks: each distribution adds to 100% within rounding. The split by award (item 20), weighted by the award mix, reproduces the overall share (item 19).
• Use: imputing PIP points consistent with each stored award (PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026#3), in Microcosm if the next pair takes it, or else in the event repository.
• Also check: Annex B of the PIP review's interim report, "DWP evidence pack" (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/timms-review-of-personal-independence-payment-interim-report/annex-b-dwp-evidence-pack), for newer editions of these tables.

6. DWP Stat-Xplore: PIP cases with entitlement

• Source: the "PIP Cases with Entitlement" dataset on Stat-Xplore. The fields are described in https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/personal-independence-payment-data-on-stat-xplore-user-guide/personal-independence-payment-data-on-stat-xplore-user-guide. The latest release is "Personal Independence Payment statistics to July 2026": https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-independence-payment-statistics-to-july-2026/personal-independence-payment-statistics-to-july-2026.
• Requested:
  • each quarter from January 2024 to the latest: cases by country, daily living award (none, standard, enhanced) and mobility award (none, standard, enhanced), age band, primary disability category, and English region and Wales;
  • for the latest quarter: totals by constituency and local authority.
• Semantics to carry:
  • "cases with entitlement", as DWP defines it;
  • normal and special rules;
  • DWP's rounding;
  • provenance class admin_aggregate.
• Template: the existing Attendance Allowance Stat-Xplore package, dwp/attendance_allowance_entitled_country_award_age_gender_february_2023_march_2026.
• Parity checks: the awards add to the total; the regions add to England.
• Use:
  • the PIP caseload for England and Wales against Microcosm's (PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026#4);
  • condition counts for the fast-track costing (PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026#5);
  • DWP's own counts for any area map, in place of modelled ones (PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026#8).

7. Social Security Scotland: Adult Disability Payment and Carer Support Payment caseloads

• Source: Social Security Scotland's official statistics, quarterly. The latest Adult Disability Payment edition found is to 31 January 2026: https://www.socialsecurity.gov.scot/publications/2026/03/adult-disability-payment-statistics-to-31-january-2026. The Carer Support Payment, Child Disability Payment and Pension Age Disability Payment releases have the same shape.
• Requested: people in receipt at each published date from April 2024:
  • Adult Disability Payment by daily living rate (standard, enhanced) and mobility rate (none, standard, enhanced), by age band, by council area where published, and by route (new applicant or case transfer);
  • Carer Support Payment by age band;
  • Child Disability Payment and Pension Age Disability Payment totals.
• Semantics to carry:
  • point-in-time counts on the last day of the month;
  • case transfers from DWP;
  • the publisher's rounding;
  • provenance class admin_aggregate.
• Use: anchoring Scottish disability payments in Microcosm, which records ADP in its PIP columns, beside the Table 5.08 spending Chronicle already holds (PolicyEngine/uk-scottish-budget-2027-28#6; PolicyEngine/uk-pip-review-2026#1).

8. HMRC: Scottish income tax outturn statistics, 2024 to 2025

• Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/scottish-income-tax-outturn-statistics-2024-to-2025, published 9 July 2026.
• Requested: the publication's tables as printed: non-savings, non-dividend (NSND) liabilities and the number of Scottish taxpayers, by band from starter to top, with the earlier years and UK comparison lines the tables carry.
• Semantics to carry:
  • Scottish taxpayer status, not address;
  • outturn with an estimated element, which HMRC puts at under 5%;
  • provenance class admin_aggregate.
• Parity check: the bands add to the published totals for 2024-25: £18.6 billion of NSND income tax, from 3,036,400 Scottish taxpayers.
• Use: a Microcosm diagnostic of Scottish NSND tax and its band shares (PolicyEngine/uk-scottish-budget-2027-28#7). It is not a target, because the SPI rows already set the level.

Group B: comparators for the event days

9. HMRC tax relief statistics: employer NICs reliefs for under-21s and apprentices under 25

• Source: "Tax relief statistics (January 2026)": https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tax-reliefs/tax-relief-statistics-january-2026.
• Requested: for each year, the cost of the zero rate of Class 1 secondary NICs for employees under 21 and for apprentices under 25: outturn and forecast as printed, with the edition's notes.
• Use: the comparator for the modelled reliefs (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#6).

10. Ofgem: the January–March 2027 cap, as a new edition of ofgem-energy-price-cap-levels-2024-2026

• When: on the announcement, by 25 November.
• Requested: 2027Q1 nil and benchmark levels by region and payment method, and the benchmark consumption, from the new Annex 9. Same shape as v1.11.
• Use: the event's household examples, and tariff parameters if policyengine-uk adds them (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#3 and PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#4). The drill rehearses on v1.11 (2026Q4).

11. Department for Communities: PIP statistics for Northern Ireland (optional)

• Use: UK totals only. The PIP event reports England and Wales.

Group C: after the events

12. DESNZ Quarterly Energy Prices: domestic customers by payment method and region

• Source: the QEP release that Chronicle's desnz/qep_*_2026 packages already read: the customer tables in section 2.4 (electricity) and 2.5 (gas). Check which table carries payment method (credit, Direct Debit, prepayment) rather than supplier type.
• Use: a Direct Debit, standard credit and prepayment draw in Microcosm (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#4).

13. Registers of Scotland and the Scottish Government: homes over £1 million and £2 million

• Sources:
  • the RoS Property Market Report 2025-26 and its data tables: https://www.ros.gov.uk/data-and-statistics/property-market-statistics/property-market-report. Its standard price bands follow the LBTT thresholds and stop at £750,000, so sales above £1 million and £2 million may need RoS's £1m+ series or an ad hoc table;
  • the Scottish Government's "Council Tax High-Value Property Bands (Mansion Tax): consultation" (https://www.gov.scot/publications/consultation-council-tax-high-value-property-bands-mansion-tax/), with its estimates of homes in the proposed Bands I (£1 million to £2 million) and J (over £2 million), valued at 1 April 2026.
• Requested:
  • residential sales over £1 million and over £2 million, by council area and year, from 2023-24;
  • the consultation's Band I and J estimates, as the published ranges.
• Semantics to carry: sales are flows, not the stock; the consultation figures are estimates.
• Use: extending Microcosm's home-value step to Scotland, for Band I and J results from 2028-29 (PolicyEngine/uk-scottish-budget-2027-28#5; PolicyEngine/microcosm#1112).

14. Optional

• DfE, children looked after in England: care leavers by age, for an off-model line on the shared accommodation exception (PolicyEngine/uk-young-people-work-review#5).
• DWP, Cold Weather Payment statistics by area, for an expected-value payment (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#8).
• Revenue Scotland, LBTT statistics, if the Budget changes LBTT.

Out of scope

• Microcosm's work: the targets, tolerances and gates built from these facts.
• Each event repository's work: the day-of comparators it keeps in its own data_inputs/official/, such as the Scottish Fiscal Commission's forecasts and the 2025 PIP costing notes.

None of these become Chronicle facts.

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