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Codex long-running tasks repeatedly hit `server_overloaded` / At Capacity despite ~70% usage remaining

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Assessment

Difficulty
5/5
Estimated time
Over a week
Newbie friendliness
8/100
Issue type
Bug
Clarity
Needs clarification
Activity status
Active

Research direction

The payload names no source files, tests or entry points, only server-side server_overloaded errors and a related report, #46632. A newcomer cannot start from code here; the first step is to read the comment thread and #46632 to see whether a maintainer has already triaged this as an incident. Done would mean a maintainer confirms the root cause or closes it as a duplicate, not a code change.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Description

app bug connectivity windows-os

Summary

On Windows Codex Desktop, long-running tasks have become unreliable due to repeated "Selected model is at capacity. Please try a different model." errors. Model switching can briefly resume work but the error returns soon afterward, interrupting the same task. The usage dashboard still shows approximately 70% remaining.

The issue became substantially worse on 2026-10-09 (UTC+08:00); 2026-10-08 was relatively normal.

Environment

  • Product: Codex Desktop on Windows
  • Affected selected models: GPT-6.1 Sol, GPT-6 Astra (and GPT-6 Sol observed during switching)
  • Account usage: approximately 70% remaining when the issue occurred
  • Workload: one long-running, multi-step task involving repeated model/tool turns

Observed behavior

  1. Start a long-running task and allow multiple turns/tool operations.
  2. Partway through, Codex reports "Selected model is at capacity" and shows reconnect attempts (up to 5/5 in the UI).
  3. Switch to a different high-tier model.
  4. The existing task can make further progress briefly, but At Capacity recurs shortly afterward.
  5. The repeated interruptions make it difficult to finish the long-running task even though the account has substantial remaining usage.

Locally observed evidence

A read-only PowerShell search of recent Codex session .jsonl logs found:

  • 41 matches containing server_overloaded
  • 41 matches containing the text Selected model is at capacity
  • 0 matches for server_is_overloaded
  • 0 matches for stream disconnected

Important: These are keyword-match counts, not 41 confirmed independent failures. The two sets of 41 matches may refer to the same underlying log events. The failures were primarily observed while working on one long-running task.

No raw logs, project content, local filesystem paths, account identifiers, or authentication material are included in this public report.

Expected behavior

When model capacity is temporarily unavailable, Codex should recover from transient server overload where possible, preserve progress across retries/model switches, and continue the long-running task without repeated manual intervention. Remaining usage quota should be differentiated clearly from transient service-capacity errors.

Request

Could the team investigate:

  1. Service-side capacity / routing for the affected high-tier models when usage quota remains available.
  2. Whether switching models during a long-running conversation continues hitting the same overloaded infrastructure or request path.
  3. How server_overloaded is retried and how interrupted long-running tool/task state is recovered after retry exhaustion.
  4. Whether a currently active incident or known regression explains the worsening on 2026-10-09.

Screenshots of the UI error and the aggregated local error counts can be provided on request.

Related report for context: #46632 (capacity errors reported despite unused quota; not asserting an identical root cause).

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