research: back-test a second-gift conversion model on DonorsChoose

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まだ誰も着手していません。

評価

難易度
4/5
見積もり時間
3〜5日
初心者へのやさしさ
28/100
issue の種類
機能追加
明瞭さ
おおむね明確
活発さ
活発
技術スタック
python
領域
data, machine-learning

調査の方向性

Start by getting the local DonorsChoose file as described in docs/results/datasets.md, then read philanthropy.datasets.load_donorschoose to see which first-gift fields are available. Use philanthropy.model_selection.compare_to_rule for the rule baselines and paired bootstrap, and scripts/make_results_pages.py for the Results row format. Done means a test-year report of top-10% hit rate and AUC against the best validation rule, recorded as either a Results row or a rejected note with the numbers.

索引モデルが issue の本文から書いたものです。

説明

enhancement help wanted roadmap
Goal

Find out whether a model beats a simple rule at picking which first-time donors will give again within 12 months.

Acceptance criteria
  • Population: donors whose first gift falls in fiscal year T. Label: another gift within 12 months of the first. load_donorschoose truncates gift_date to the first of the month, so define "within 12 months" in whole months and say so; a second gift in the same month as the first is ambiguous and must be handled explicitly (drop or count, stated).
  • Baseline rules: "first gift above the median", plus one-column rules on what the loader actually returns (donor_type, was_matched, the two gift-card flags). There is no recurring-gift field in this file. The reported baseline is the best rule on the validation fold.
  • Model: DonorPropensityModel on features known at the first gift only (amount, month, donor_type, was_matched, gift-card flags), so nothing after the first gift leaks in. load_donorschoose returns no project fields; joining them would need a second file and a note on its licence.
  • Protocol: choose settings on a validation fiscal year, report once on a later test year: top-10% hit rate and AUC with a paired bootstrap interval against the best rule.
  • Outcome recorded either way: a Results row if it wins, or a "rejected" note with the numbers if it doesn't.
Scope

Research and a Results-page row. No new public estimator unless the model clearly wins on the test year.

Where to start
  • philanthropy.datasets.load_donorschoose (local file; docs/results/datasets.md says where to get it)
  • philanthropy.model_selection.compare_to_rule for the bootstrap and verdict logic to copy. It only accepts task in {"upgrade", "lapse", "ask"}, so it cannot run this comparison as is; adding a task is part of the public API and only follows an adopt result
  • scripts/make_results_pages.py for how existing rows are generated
Dependencies
  • None

Phase order is a release plan, not a rule against picking up independent work early. Comment on this issue before you start so two people don't build the same thing.

主要言語
Python
スター
11
フォーク
23
平均マージ
2日 19時間
マージ済み PR（30日）
31

環境構築

はじめの一歩

  1. issue を最後まで読み、次にプロジェクトのコントリビューションガイドを読みます。
  2. 着手することを issue にコメントします — 二人が同じ作業をするのを防げます。
  3. リポジトリをフォークし、ブランチを切って変更します。
  4. issue 番号を参照したプルリクエストを送ります。

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