Alaska's reported dividend stays in miscellaneous_income, so the simulated dividend counts it twice

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Valutazione

Difficoltà
4/5
Tempo stimato
3-5 giorni
Idoneità per principianti
20/100
Tipo di issue
Bug
Chiarezza
Abbastanza chiara
Stato di attività
Attiva
Stack tecnologico
python
Ambito
data-engineering

Direzione di ricerca

Start with the ASEC OI_VAL/OI_OFF split in packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/alimony.py, then run scripts/ak_misc.py to reproduce the Alaska share table. The fix must choose a match rule for reported dividends, record it in build provenance, and add a test that fails on any Alaska record whose other income equals a past dividend. The rule needs a decision from maintainers first, so confirm the approach on the issue before you code.

Scritto dal modello di indicizzazione a partire dal testo della issue.

Descrizione

Problem

Populace US carries reported Alaska Permanent Fund Dividends in miscellaneous_income, and policyengine-us also computes the dividend for every Alaska resident in ak_permanent_fund_dividend. Both reach market income, so people who reported the dividend count it twice.

Evidence

The file is populace_us_2024.h5 at populace-us-2024-spm-20260909, the default for policyengine-us 2.90.2. These are unweighted person records:

State Share of people with miscellaneous_income above 0
Alaska 11.05%
Washington 0.80%
Oregon 0.69%

Alaska's most common positive values are $3,284, $1,312, $3,200, $1,702 and $2,622. Several match past payments: $3,284 is the 2022 dividend with its energy relief, $2,622 is the 2022 dividend alone, $1,312 is the 2023 dividend, and $1,702 is the 2024 dividend with its energy relief. So the rule should also take out ak_energy_relief, which policyengine-us computes for some years. I could not match $3,200.

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/alimony.py splits ASEC OI_VAL by OI_OFF. Code 20 goes to alimony, code 12 goes to strike benefits, and every other code goes to miscellaneous_income. I found no code that takes the dividend out, and no Census source that names a separate field for it.

scripts/ak_misc.py in ~/reviews/household-spm-recon-2026-11 reproduces the table.

Effect

  • household_market_income already counts both today.
  • spm_unit_market_income starts to count both when PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#10573 merges, because it adds the dividend to person market_income. That PR fixes the model's own lists, so it should not wait for this one, and its body states the overlap.

Proposed fix

Remove reported dividends from Alaska residents' miscellaneous_income at build time, so that the simulated dividend stands alone. The file can't identify the dividend by source, so the rule needs a tested match on amount and year, or a share taken from the difference between Alaska's rate and comparable states' rates. Either choice should appear in the build's provenance.

Done means

  • Alaska's share of people with miscellaneous_income above 0 falls near that of comparable states.
  • A test fails on any Alaska record whose reported other income equals a past dividend amount.
  • The release notes state the change in Alaska's market income, because it lands in a data release.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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