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Every tax unit files for refundable credits in the certified release: no EITC non-filers

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Valutazione

Difficoltà
4/5
Tempo stimato
3-5 giorni
Idoneità per principianti
48/100
Tipo di issue
Funzionalità
Chiarezza
Abbastanza chiara
Stato di attività
Attiva
Stack tecnologico
python

Direzione di ricerca

Start by reading us/spec/take_up.yaml and the frame adapter binding in policyengine_us_concepts.py, then trace how certified bundle inputs are constructed. The issue suggests seeding would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit from eligible non-filer propensity data while preserving takes_up_eitc for non-claiming filers. Check the resulting EITC participation rate against the IRS-Census figures cited in the issue.

Scritto dal modello di indicizzazione a partire dal testo della issue.

Descrizione

Summary

In populace-us-2024-spm-20260915 (bundle us-6.2.1), would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit is stored as True for every tax unit (mean 1.0 in a policyengine.py managed simulation, 2024). policyengine-us documents the input as one "assigned during microdata construction based on propensity modeling" (default True). The build does not seed it: us/spec/take_up.yaml has no entry for it. (The frame adapter binds it to TakeUpThreshold(program="us.refundable_credit_filing") in policyengine_us_concepts.py, but the certified data carries no such draw.)

So in PolicyEngine, every tax unit entitled to the EITC files a return. The only source of EITC non-participation is takes_up_eitc.

Evidence

  • policyengine-us 2.2.1 eitc = min(phased-in, limitation) × takes_up_eitc × filer, where filer = required to file OR files voluntarily OR would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit. With the last input always True, no entitled unit is a non-filer.
  • IRS-Census (CES-WP-24-75, Table 2): in tax year 2021, 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants were non-filers; 1.1 million filed but did not claim.
  • policyengine-scorecard lane nta-eitc (PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard#151), us-6.2.1, CY2024: PE's EITC participation is 88.0%, against IRS's 80.8% (ACS) and 78% (CPS) for tax year 2022. Every PE non-participant has takes_up_eitc off; none is a non-filer.

Effect

  • EITC, refundable CTC (ACTC) and refundable State credits never miss a unit through non-filing. Where calibration fits SOI claims (State EITC claims by number of children), the weights absorb the difference, but the eligible-but-not-filing population is missing from the microdata.
  • Reforms that change filing incentives (for example a larger refundable credit, or simplified filing) cannot move non-filers into claiming, because none exist.

Suggested fix

Seed would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit from a non-filer propensity, for example the IRS-Census eligible non-filer counts (CES-WP-24-75 Table 2: non-filers and filers), and keep takes_up_eitc for non-claiming filers only. Then check the EITC participation rate against IRS-Census again.

Lingua principale
Python
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0
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