Expand JCT target coverage: JCX-45-25 vintage + RCC-relevant lines (CTC/EITC/CDCC/ALD/OBBBA)

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Valutazione

Difficoltà
4/5
Tempo stimato
3-5 giorni
Idoneità per principianti
48/100
Tipo di issue
Funzionalità
Chiarezza
Abbastanza chiara
Stato di attività
Tranquilla
Stack tecnologico
python
Ambito
data, testing-qa

Direzione di ricerca

Inizia con scripts/scoring_validation/pull_calibration_residuals.py e scripts/scoring_validation/comparison.csv, quindi esamina la superficie di target jct esistente rispetto a PR #48 e ai documenti JCX indicati qui. Aggiungi la copertura per JCX-45-25 e per le righe proposte CTC/ACTC, EITC, CDCC, sopra la linea e OBBBA, mantenendo o sostituendo intenzionalmente JCX-48-24. Il lavoro sarà completo quando i target saranno disponibili in un'unica superficie JSON e i confronti dei residui non richiederanno più la trascrizione manuale.

Scritto dal modello di indicizzazione a partire dal testo della issue.

Descrizione

Context

We just finished a scoring validation pass on the 9 refundable-credit-conversion repeal toggles (CTC, EITC, CDCC, standard deduction, itemized, ALD, OBBBA bundle, §199A QBI, head-of-household) against JCT JCX-45-25 and JCX-22-25R. We pulled the populace-us release on Hugging Face (populace-us-2024-f0d2ef6-09292aa0d5db-20260617T032307Z) hoping the target surface could anchor the validation, and ran into two issues worth raising here.

What the target surface covers today

Family n targets Vintage Lines
jct 5 JCX-48-24 (CY2024) SALT, mortgage interest, charitable, medical, §199A QBI
irs_soi 4,748 TY2020/2022 Income components, EITC/CTC/ACTC/QBI deduction lines, filing-status slices
cbo 5 Feb 2026 AGI projections by source
state_income_tax, ssa, cms_*, tanf, snap 339 various not RCC-relevant

Issue 1 — JCT family uses JCX-48-24, not JCX-45-25

The latest JCT tax-expenditure document is JCX-45-25 (Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2025-2029, Dec 2025). The repo's jct family still anchors on the earlier JCX-48-24 at CY2024. The two disagree on every line (different fiscal-year window, post-OBBBA mortgage interest is $53.0B in JCX-45-25 vs $24.8B in JCX-48-24, etc.), and downstream consumers validating against the newer vintage end up double-checking which JCT cell they're matching against.

Proposal: load JCX-45-25 alongside JCX-48-24 (or replace it). FY2026 and FY2027 are the cells we need most for OBBBA-era scoring.

Issue 2 — Five-line jct family is too narrow for tax-expenditure validation

Today the JCT family covers SALT, mortgage interest, charitable, medical, and §199A. For RCC validation we hit gaps on:

Toggle Why no benchmark
CTC no CTC/ACTC line in jct family
EITC no EITC line in jct family
CDCC no §21 / §129 line
Standard deduction JCT excludes from tax-expenditure framing
ALD (above-the-line) no traditional IRA, HSA, student loan, SE-health, SE-pension, educator
OBBBA bundle no tip exclusion, overtime exclusion, senior bonus, SALT cap raise

Proposal: add JCT tax-expenditure lines for at least the refundable credits (CTC/ACTC, EITC, CDCC) and above-the-line deductions JCT does score (traditional IRA, SE-pension, SE-health, HSA, SLID, educator). For OBBBA, the natural source is JCX-22-25R (Estimated Revenue Effects of the OBBBA) — that's the document we used in PR #48.

Issue 3 — Residuals on the 5 JCT lines we do have are eye-catching

name target final_estimate relative_error
jct...salt_deduction.revenue_loss $21.7B $5.9B -72.7%
jct...medical_expense_deduction.revenue_loss $11.4B $0.6B -94.8%
jct...charitable_deduction.revenue_loss $60.4B $32.5B -46.1%
jct...deductible_mortgage_interest.revenue_loss $24.8B $11.4B -54.1%
jct...qualified_business_income_deduction.revenue_loss $63.1B $11.8B -81.2%

(Aggregate fit is 94.65% within 10%, so these tax-expenditure lines are sitting in the long tail.) Interestingly the toggle revenue impact in PE-US comes out reasonably close to JCX-45-25 on these (e.g. QBI -19%), suggesting microsim formulas are compensating for the under-represented base. Worth a separate look at whether these targets are getting enough calibration pressure.

What this would enable

With JCX-45-25 + CTC/EITC/CDCC/ALD/OBBBA lines loaded, the surface becomes a one-stop validation source for the RCC project (and any subsequent reform-modeling work scoring against JCT). Today we hand-transcribe ~25 JCT cells per validation run; tomorrow we could join PE-US output against a single JSON.

Cross-reference

  • PolicyEngine/refundable-credit-conversion#48 — the validation effort that surfaced these gaps
  • scripts/scoring_validation/comparison.csv (in that PR) — column populace_calibration_residual now reports the 5 existing JCT residuals plus SOI residuals for CTC/EITC/QBI
  • scripts/scoring_validation/pull_calibration_residuals.py — pulls the residuals from this surface

Happy to write up the JCX-45-25 table parsing if it helps.

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