January 2027 price cap: kWh, a mains gas flag and tariff parameters, the cap's consumption basis, and Northern Ireland

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@vahid-ahmadi ya está trabajando en esto.

Desde el 6/11/2026.

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Descripción

Context

Ofgem announces the January–March 2027 cap by 25 November 2026 (checklist: PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#10). 2.174.1 already carries what the event needs for current law:

  • the retail energy price indices (#2727, from 2.168.1);
  • the Household Energy Payment, and the electricity zero rate to 30 June 2027 (2.170.0);
  • the Warm Home Discount (#2504 and #2616).

Already open

  • #2883 (draft): electricity and gas prices grow at their own rates (energy_prices.fuel_growth), for PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#2.
  • #2884 (draft): a VAT rate for domestic gas, for PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#6.
  • #2882 (draft): the prepayment meter input's description, part of PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#8.
  • #2526: the energy-specific projection index. Its two remaining items are done: the index itself (#2727), and Microcosm releases that declare energy_price_basis (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1383).
  • #435: Cold Weather Payment.

1. kWh, a mains gas flag, and standing charge and unit rate parameters

Tariff reforms need consumption in kWh and the two charges by fuel (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#4). Examples are removing standing charges, moving cost between standing charges and unit rates, or a social tariff.

  • Annual kWh inputs. electricity_consumption_kwh and gas_consumption_kwh (variables/input/consumption/) are monthly inputs, default -1, which no dataset fills. Microcosm prices annual kWh to spending in its build. Annual inputs, or a documented split of an annual value into months, would let a dataset supply them.
  • A mains gas flag. has_mains_gas would be a household input defaulting to gas_consumption > 0.
  • Tariff parameters. Standing charges (pence a day) and unit rates (pence per kWh), by fuel, payment method and region, with a bill split: spending = standing charge × days + unit rate × kWh.
    • Chronicle's ofgem-energy-price-cap-levels-2024-2026 holds the cap's nil and benchmark levels by region and payment method.
    • From those, the standing charge = nil level / 365, and the unit rate = (benchmark level − nil level) / benchmark consumption.

2. The cap parameter on one consumption basis

gov.ofgem.energy_price_cap mixes typical-consumption bases around July 2026. #2098 documented the break in comments but kept both bases (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#3).

Either option would put it on one basis:

  • restate the series on one typical-consumption basis;
  • add a typical_consumption sibling, and have epg_subsidy (variables/gov/treasury/price_cap_subsidy/epg_subsidy.py) use a ratio on the same basis.

3. Northern Ireland

  • Energy projection. uprate_energy (data/economic_assumptions.py) moves every household's energy spending by the Great Britain indices. Northern Ireland's tariffs sit outside Ofgem's cap. The options are a Northern Ireland index, or a documented choice to keep Northern Ireland on the OBR path.
  • An unbanded council tax member. Northern Ireland has domestic rates, not council tax. CouncilTaxBand (variables/input/council_tax_band.py) has no unbanded member, so datasets give Northern Ireland households a placeholder band. An unbanded member would keep them out of band-based results.
  • Cold Weather Payment: #435.
  • An unused parameter. No variable reads gov.contrib.policyengine.economy.energy_bills (parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/economy/energy_bills.yaml). Either wire it up or remove it.

Relationship to data work

None of Microcosm's data work for this event is decided. If any goes ahead:

  • A kWh export. Microcosm already computes kWh in its build. Exporting them would need item 1's annual inputs, or the monthly split, first. Until then, the event repository can recover kWh from spending.
  • A payment-method draw beyond prepayment would need a payment-method input here, and new published facts (requested in PolicyEngine/chronicle#420).
  • Northern Ireland's placeholder council tax band goes away only once item 3's unbanded member exists for a dataset to write.
  • No data work needed: has_mains_gas (item 1) defaults from spending, and the tariff parameters and item 2 involve no data.
  • Gas spending at the ONS level is data work that needs nothing from this issue.

Not in this issue

  • Payment methods beyond prepayment: data, needing Chronicle and Microcosm first.
  • Which income measure carries the Warm Home Discount (PolicyEngine/uk-energy-price-cap-jan-2027#5): a choice for the event repository.
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