Pension Credit spending rises to 2030-31 while DWP forecasts a fall
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Evaluación
- Dificultad
- 5/5
- Tiempo estimado
- Más de una semana
- Aptitud para principiantes
- 25/100
Línea de trabajo
Rerun the aggregate-impact Pension Credit spending and caseload paths for 2025-26 to 2030-31 on both the Enhanced FRS file enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (uk-data 1.58.1) and Microcosm build microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504 (policyengine.py 6.11.1, pe-uk 2.151.0). Record commands and hashes, then test the three candidates—State Pension age rise, cohort private pension income, take-up—by age and caseload. Done means both paths are reported, each candidate’s share is quantified, and any remaining gap is documented or split into fix issues/PRs.
Escrito por el modelo de indexación a partir del texto del issue.
Descripción
Raised by @vahid-ahmadi in his review of #2092 (comment, 27 October). #2092 does not change this gap: its aggregate impact shows no household change against main. The gap exists on main.
The gap
Model figures are #2092's aggregate-impact head levels on the Enhanced FRS (enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, uk-data 1.58.1). DWP figures are from the Spring Forecast 2026 benefit expenditure and caseload tables (Pension Credit tab, nominal, GB).
| 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | 2030-31 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model spending (UK) | £6.66bn | £7.04bn | £7.32bn | £7.46bn | £7.60bn | £7.77bn |
| DWP spending (GB) | £6.14bn | £6.06bn | £5.91bn | £5.78bn | £5.83bn | £5.82bn |
| DWP caseload | 1,382k | 1,312k | 1,253k | 1,188k | 1,142k | 1,133k |
- The model is 8% above DWP in 2025-26 and 33% above in 2030-31.
- Over those years DWP's spending falls 5% and its caseload falls 18%. The model's spending rises 17%.
- The model covers the UK and DWP covers Great Britain. Northern Ireland explains only a small part of the level gap, and none of the change in the gap.
Where to look
#2092 makes the uprating rules match the law, so the divergence must come from the caseload side. These are candidates; none has been tested:
- The State Pension age rise from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028.
- Newer cohorts' private pension income.
- Take-up (compare #1813 for pension-age Housing Benefit).
Before diagnosing
Measure the path again on the Budget dataset, Microcosm build microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261025T091414Z-a6299504 (certified by policyengine.py 6.11.1 with pe-uk 2.151.0). The figures above are from the Enhanced FRS, and the gap may differ on Microcosm. Report spending and caseload for 2025-26 to 2030-31 on both datasets.
Done when
- The spending and caseload paths are measured on Microcosm and the Enhanced FRS, with commands and dataset hashes.
- Each candidate above is tested (for example, caseload by single year of age across the State Pension age rise) and its part of the gap is reported.
- Each cause found has its own fix PR or issue. If a gap remains, the issue records how big it is and why.
Pension-age Housing Benefit was not compared: DWP has it at £7.1bn in 2025-26, but the aggregate report gives only total Housing Benefit (£8.55bn).
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