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Census STC T40 targets for Maryland and New York are measured with state_income_tax, which includes county and NYC income taxes

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Evaluación

Dificultad
3/5
Tiempo estimado
1-2 días
Aptitud para principiantes
45/100
Tipo de issue
Error
Claridad
Bastante claro
Estado de actividad
Activo
Stack tecnológico
python
Área
data

Línea de trabajo

The mismatch is between the Census STC T40 targets and the state_income_tax measure for Maryland and New York. Start with pipeline/campaign_us/census_stc.py and sources/census-stc/pe/us-6.2.1.json in PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard, since the payload places the target definitions there rather than in microcosm. Done means choosing between measuring each target with the State's own variable or dropping the local components, then showing the MD and NY targets line up with the State-only totals in that JSON.

Escrito por el modelo de indexación a partir del texto del issue.

Descripción

What is wrong

us-6.2.1 (populace-us-2024-spm-20260915, on the Build P weights) calibrates to Census STC FY2023 item T40, individual income tax collections, for 44 jurisdictions (census_stc.fy2023.individual_income_tax_collections.<st>.t40). T40 counts the State government's income tax only.

For Maryland and New York, the calibrated estimate matches the engine's state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units. In policyengine-us 2.2.1 that sum includes local taxes. gov/states/household/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits.yaml lists md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits and nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits.

T40 target (FY2023) Calibrated estimate state_income_tax over the State's tax units State's own <st>_income_tax
MD $9,711M $20,913M $20,908M $12,635M
NY $58,776M $71,272M $71,360M $59,189M

(The last two columns are CY2024 on the certified bundle.)

  • Maryland: the estimate equals the State-plus-county sum within 0.02%. It is 2.15× the target. The State's own variable is 1.30× the target.
  • New York: the estimate equals the State-plus-NYC sum within 0.12%. It is 1.21× the target. The State's own variable is 1.01× the target.
  • The other 42 jurisdictions: the estimate equals the State's own variable within a median 0.02%.

The solve therefore holds Maryland and New York weights against a target for a different quantity. In those two States, the local taxes add 65% (MD) and 21% (NY) to the State tax.

Proposed fix

Measure each T40 target with the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax, and so on), or leave the local components out of the target column, so the measure matches what Census counts.

Evidence

  • sources/census-stc/pe/us-6.2.1.json in PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard (PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard#176) records, for each jurisdiction, the State variable total, the state_income_tax total, and the release's target and final_estimate. pipeline/campaign_us/census_stc.py computed it on the certified bundle.
  • calibration_diagnostics.json, sha256 870449b4…, is the same file in Build P and us-6.2.1.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Lenguaje dominante
Python
Estrellas
0
Forks
5
Merge medio
1 d 6 h
PR fusionados (30 d)
146

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