epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize

View on GitHub

Joint Bayesian generative Turing model for the 2026 DRC BVD outbreak. Combines exports, deaths and reported suspected cases (with ascertainment) in a single posterior. Includes a no-onward-transmission deaths lower bound.

Stars: 13
Forks: 2
Open beginner issues: 2
Indexed issues: 40
Avg merge: 11h 23m
Merged PRs (30d): 106

Dominant language: Julia
License: MIT
Last GitHub push: Sep 18, 2026
Latest indexed: Sep 20, 2026
Contributing guide: No contributing guide
Code of conduct: Code of conduct
Beginner labels: No beginner labels indexed

Beginner friendly Everything

Open All

40 open issues indexed

Recover clamped zone increments from the 24-hour columns on revision vintages Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#750 · Opened Sep 17, 2026
Fit job Actions cache key hashes data/** including the 230 MB of source PDFs Open

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 70/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#739 · Opened Sep 17, 2026
Five outputs are missing from the published report where hidden displays share a chunk Open

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 58/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#735 · Opened Sep 17, 2026
Explore folding the health-zone level into the joint fit Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#705 · Opened Sep 15, 2026
M_PRIOR_BASE is 3.0 where the backfill's documented base is 9 Open

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 55/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#702 · Opened Sep 15, 2026
confirmed_deaths_model still caps the death volume at one specimen per suspected death Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 30/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#678 · Opened Sep 14, 2026
Prior-data conflict in the cryptic-doublings prior m, and a prior predictive that drifts further from the data each vintage Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 25/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#670 · Opened Sep 12, 2026
onset curve: SitRep 117's plotted window retreats 5 days vs SitRep 116, correlating with joint-fit Rhat 2.6 Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 32/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#662 · 2 comments · Opened Sep 10, 2026
data: ERVEBO vaccination coverage — new candidate signal for tracking Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#650 · Opened Sep 7, 2026
expected_isolation_T and bed_shortfall_T are on the latent demand scale, not the reported one Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#640 · Opened Sep 3, 2026
results-v1.7.0 backfill reconstruction explodes and sets the pooled cross-release skill Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 32/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#639 · Opened Sep 3, 2026
Confirmed-deaths forecast collapses to a zero median at late-July cut-offs Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 48/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#638 · Opened Sep 3, 2026
Some citations not rendering Open

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#627 · Opened Aug 31, 2026
Check reconstructed forecasts and consider updating the out of time projection for them Open

bug

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 25/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#622 · Opened Aug 28, 2026
Delegate the last-reported-date helpers to the shared stream registry Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 48/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#610 · Opened Aug 26, 2026
Auto version increment is wedged by a stale branch and skips silently on every push Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 65/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#607 · Opened Aug 26, 2026
candidate signal: SMSPS (psychosocial support) case coverage, first seen SitRep 095 Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#582 · 1 comment · Opened Aug 21, 2026
candidate signal: PoE/PoC alerts notified (`Nombre d'alertes notifiées`, Tableau 5) Open

Difficulty 2/5 1-3 hours Newbie friendliness 76/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#564 · Opened Aug 10, 2026
candidate signal: severe/critical clinical forms in isolation (`formes sévères ou critiques`) Open

Difficulty 2/5 1-3 hours Newbie friendliness 72/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#554 · Opened Aug 5, 2026
Decide the lab model's testing-fraction dynamics and headline positivity link Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#546 · Opened Aug 4, 2026
Tighten diffuse lab priors: decay_scale, τ_test, δ0 Open

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 52/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#544 · Opened Aug 4, 2026
feat(scoring): score the isolation and treatment flows in and out, not the occupancy level Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 38/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#525 · Opened Jul 29, 2026
fix(scoring): per-dataset release history spans two releases, including for the joint Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 48/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#515 · 1 comment · Opened Jul 29, 2026
feat(scoring): fit and score the individual single-stream models at the frozen cut-offs Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#513 · 1 comment · Opened Jul 29, 2026
Backfill releases carry no individual-stream forecasts, so rel_to_individual can never be scored historically Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#509 · 3 comments · Opened Jul 28, 2026
Convert the package into using composableTuringIdmodels. Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 25/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#504 · 2 comments · Opened Jul 28, 2026
Scope out work needed to move to a paper format for preprinting Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#503 · 1 comment · Opened Jul 28, 2026
Backfill reconstruction at 2026-06-21 forecasts a median of zero and sets the pooled skill Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#498 · 1 comment · Opened Jul 27, 2026
Two candidate SitRep signals to consider tracking: alert-investigation throughput and cumulative CTE admissions Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#486 · Opened Jul 26, 2026
fix(plots): ensure all releases appear on forecast-overlay plots Open

bug

Difficulty 3/5 1-2 days Newbie friendliness 58/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#478 · Opened Jul 23, 2026
feat(plots): show individual-fit forecasts on overlay plots Open

enhancement

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#477 · Opened Jul 23, 2026
Enzyme cannot differentiate bvd_joint: boxed map(do) closures (fixable) then upstream nodecayed_phis! LLVM bug Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#445 · 1 comment · Opened Jul 20, 2026
Fit the community suspect-death signal (Tableau 3 'alertes validées – décédées') as a separate stream Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 42/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#431 · 2 comments · Opened Jul 16, 2026
Use the contact-tracing follow-up rate (Taux de suivi des contacts) as an ascertainment covariate Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 45/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#335 · 1 comment · Opened Jun 25, 2026
Background-CFR prior (Beta(2,6), mean 0.25) may be implausibly high for non-BVD suspected deaths Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 48/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#308 · Opened Jun 21, 2026
Overlapping data streams scored as conditionally independent may understate C_T uncertainty Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 38/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#307 · Opened Jun 21, 2026
Ground the isolation admission fraction with better prior information Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#298 · 2 comments · Opened Jun 20, 2026
Export model assumes one-way travel: round trips before detection are over-counted Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 30/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#177 · Opened Jun 2, 2026
Tighten lab_delay_model prior with per-sample turnaround data Open

Difficulty 4/5 3-5 days Newbie friendliness 48/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#128 · Opened May 27, 2026
Data broken down by region Open

Difficulty 5/5 Over a week Newbie friendliness 35/100

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize#38 · 4 comments · Opened May 20, 2026

epiforecasts/BVDOutbreakSize

Get new issues in your inbox