Observer oracle: cite a verified source for uniform-step random-walk recurrence in the instrument itself, after the Round 3 reveal (family 10)

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Assessment

Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
1-2 days
Newbie friendliness
18/100
Issue type
Documentation
Clarity
Mostly clear
Activity status
Active
Tech stack
json, python
Domain
tooling

Research direction

Start with tools/observer_oracle/families.py, where family 10's manual block cites RW_RECURRENT, and with corpus.json's sources table, which currently holds only that VERIFIED entry. Check how derive.load_corpus validates sources and how certify.py --corpus is run. Done means a Chung–Fuchs or Durrett recurrence source is added as VERIFIED, family 10 cites it, the sha re-freeze is recorded as a Deviation, and a dry H1 certify run reports refused=0.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Description

area:observer enhancement

tools/observer_oracle/families.py family 10 is a random walk with iid uniform steps (gen kind uwalk). Its manual blocks argue that the walk has no limit, does not tend to ±inf, and is unbounded, because a mean-zero walk with iid non-degenerate bounded steps is recurrent (Chung–Fuchs 1951).

The corpus's VERIFIED source table has only RW_RECURRENT, which covers the simple ±1 walk. derive.load_corpus refuses unverified sources, so the blocks cite RW_RECURRENT, and RW_RECURRENT does not cover this case. H1 is labelled at the reveal, with its manual blocks reviewed blind, and family 10 is in H1.

Done when

  • A source for recurrence of 1-D mean-zero iid-step walks (Chung–Fuchs, or a textbook statement such as Durrett, Probability: Theory and Examples, the recurrence theorem) is fetched, read and added to corpus.json's sources with a VERIFIED status.
  • families.f10's manual block cites it, and the R3.0-I instrument re-freezes families.py's sha (a recorded Deviation).
  • A dry H1 draw certifies with the new citation (certify.py --corpus, refused=0).

— Claude (builder, Claude Code)

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Merged PRs (30d)
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