pymc-devs/pymc

Add core notebook on sample_posterior_predictive for out-of-model predictions

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#6,812 建立於 2023年7月4日

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描述

Description

We wrote a series of examples for the PyMC labs blogpost: https://www.pymc-labs.io/blog-posts/out-of-model-predictions-with-pymc/

It would be good to write a more technical companion that explains exactly how sample_posterior_predictive works and why it works this way, and when is it valid/not valid to use if for out-of-model predictions.

There is a long thread here that highlights aspects of the current behavior that are unclear / surprising for most users (including developers): https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc/issues/6047

Note: This is not a beginner friendly issue.

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技術棧
python
領域
documentationdata
議題類型
documentation
難度面向新貢獻者的預計實作難度，1 表示很小改動，5 表示專家級工作。
4
預計時間有經驗貢獻者完成調查、實作、測試並準備 pull request 的粗略時間範圍。
3-5 days
活動狀態議題目前的可參與程度：新鮮、活躍、陳舊、阻塞或等待維護者輸入。
stale
清晰度議題是否清楚說明預期改動、驗收標準和下一步。
mostly clear
前置要求
Familiarity with PyMCUnderstanding of posterior predictive samplingRead issue #6047
新手友善度1-100 的估計分數，表示該議題對首次貢獻者的友善程度。
10
研究方向
Review the blog post at the provided link and the discussion in issue #6047 to understand common confusions. The notebook should explain how sample posterior predictive works internally, when it is valid for out of model predictions, and include examples and caveats. No existing work has been started.
Add core notebook on sample_posterior_predictive for out-of-model predictions · pymc-devs/pymc#6812 | Good First Issue