[organization_capital] posterior-mean figure does not show the convergence the text describes
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Assessment
- Difficulty
- 2/5
- Estimated time
- 1-3 hours
- Newbie friendliness
- 74/100
- Issue type
- Bug
- Clarity
- Mostly clear
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data-visualization, documentation
Research direction
Open lectures/organization_capital.md and inspect the cell producing the "Posterior mean convergence and uncertainty" figure, including its T = 20 setting and the prose below it. Rerun the cell to compare the posterior mean with θ_true = 0.8, then either adjust the sample size or revise the explanation so the figure and text agree.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Description
In lectures/organization_capital.md, the cell producing the "Posterior mean convergence and uncertainty" figure simulates a single worker with T = 20. The text just below it says:
As the number of screening observations $n$ increases, the posterior mean converges to the true $\theta$, and the posterior uncertainty shrinks at rate $1/\sqrt{n}$.
The posterior mean in the left panel does not converge to θ_true = 0.8. It wanders and ends well away from it.
This is about the sample size rather than the seed: PR #1014 migrates the cell to np.random.default_rng(0), which changes the draws but not this behaviour. Screenshots of the figure before and after that migration are attached below.
Before the migration:
After the migration:
Two ways to make the figure match the text:
- Increase
T. - Or soften the prose so that it describes what the figure shows at
T = 20.
CC @mmcky and @HumphreyYang.
- Dominant language
- TeX
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- 3d 8h
- Merged PRs (30d)
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